NBA Playoffs best bets: 4 expert picks for Tuesday 4/30

76ers vs. Knicks

Tuesday, April 30, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
Under 105.5 (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

As outlined in my single game guide, this series got back in the mud in Game 4, where it belongs.

We've gotten two unders and two overs in this series, and a big regression in Game 4 from red hot shooting and scoring highs from each team in Game 3.

Joel Embiid couldn't even move at the end of Game 4 — chances are he's knee deep in treatment as you're reading this.

Jalen Brunson found his offense on the road and is continuing to explain the Sixers deep drop and get to his sweet spots regardless of who stands before him — but is Nick Nurse able to figure out a way to contain him in a do or die Game 5? And will the role players hit has been a big point of this series, especially for Philly.

I think this is another close, lowish scoring game in classic Eastern Conference roughneck sloppery or this is a Sixers Smackdown that gets ugly early because the Philly dudes show up to MSG with the lemon booty.

Either way, it's an under for me, and I like this to 103.5.

Now let's go mudding, word to Louis Litt.

Pick: Under 105.5

Pacers vs. Bucks

Tuesday, April 30, 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Under 214.5 (DraftKings)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

Game 4 sailed over the total but that was mostly a result of insane shot-making by the Pacers who made more than half of their 43 attempts from long-range. Myles Turner was 7-9 from 3 and the Indiana starters combined were 18-31.

That 3-point shooting variance should even out, but the rest of the shooting was mostly sustainable—around 51 percent from the floor for both teams. The pace has also been surprisingly slow the past two games and if that keeps up, we should see a low-scoring game.

Finally, a trend I found on Bet Labs supports an under bet, and the parameters are simple. In games with a home underdog, the under is 205-166-3 since 2005 for a seven percent ROI. This season, it’s 7-1 for 64 percent ROI.

Pick: Under 214.5

Magic vs. Cavaliers

Tuesday, April 30, 8 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Under 200.5 | Cavs under 102.5 | Magic under 97.5 (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Same stuff, different day.

We have three game total unders in this series — the only over was an Orlando Magic 121-point outlier. They had 112 in Game 4, but it was so bad of a blowout that it didn't matter.

The Cavs haven't hit a total team over yet. They've scored 97, 96, 83 and 89. They're due for some positive regression, but I don't care. It's been four times, and the books are still giving them 102.5.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have one game of 100 or more points between this and last year's playoffs. I'll take another under and am willing to be proven wrong, but show me first.

The Magic, classic young ahead of schedule team, 83 and 86 on the road, 121 and 112 at home. We're back in Cleveland in Game 5, so I'm backing the under. They're do to plummet back down to who they are offensively.

I'm playing all three of these, hoping to get at least two, but if we geet the same series we have been — especially the version in Ohio — who knows?

Pick: Under 200.5 | Cavs under 102.5 | Magic under 97.5

Magic vs. Cavaliers

Tuesday, April 30, 8 p.m. ET, NBA TV
Under 199.5 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

This series has been ugly offensively, hence the sub-200 total in the year 2024. Surprisingly, it hasn't been the Magic who have struggled nearly as much as the Cavaliers who have posted a 103.2 Offensive Rating as their best mark of the 2024 playoffs. This series also has yet to yield an away team to score in the 90’s let alone over 100.

The one game in this series that went over was the first game at home for the Magic, who exploded for 121 points, despite the Cavaliers scoring just 83 points. This is a scary low total, but it’s low for a reason—the market doesn’t think we’ll see much scoring and neither do I. Expect another low-90s slugfest. I’d be surprised if both teams cracked 100 points, but even if one does, the losing team shouldn’t put up many points to push this one over.

Pick: Under 199.5